Theses›Space

Space

Launch, orbit and what is built up there.

  • 11 theses
  • 11 bear
Early64795211Closing3Shut81Not dated10 Early64795211Closing3Shut81Not dated10
Fig. 1Where the bets sit: windows from Early to Shut, left to right; each plot's area is the market's size by 2035. A double outline is a bull call, a single one a bear call, a dashed one a thesis with no call written yet. 2 not yet sized are drawn small.
The marketsnumbered as the plan
  1. 1European launch
    • Bear
    • Shut
    • $1.9B
    • Support 85
     Europe flew fewer than ten orbital launches in 2025 against more than 190 for the United States, and the money now closing that gap is defence money rather than civil space money, which makes European launch sovereignty the datable why-now…
  2. 2Space-based datacentres
    • Bear
    • Early
    • Support 83
     REBUILT AROUND THE CHEAP-LAUNCH CASE (3 Sep 2026, at Lawrence's instruction: he believes launch costs fall faster than consensus).
  3. 3SAR and EO satellite data
    • Bear
    • Closing
    • $11B
    • Support 80
     SAR/EO repricing — sovereign capability captures the value while imagery and analytics both commoditise (watch)
  4. 4Smallsat platforms
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $5.8B
    • Support 80
     The merchant smallsat platform layer: sovereign constellations are the demand, and fifteen years of fragmentation is the reason it still does not produce a EUR1B European exit (watch)
  5. 5Space power electronics
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $1.4B
    • Support 80
     Space power: the kilowatt-class platform generation and where the power layer's value sits (watch)
  6. 6In-space manufacturing
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $19B
    • Support 76
     In-space manufacturing — downmass gets solved while the product market fails to appear (watch)
  7. 7In-space mobility
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $5.6B
    • Support 76
     In-space mobility: private capital is running an order of magnitude ahead of the government line item (watch)
  8. 8Radiation-hardened chips
    • Bear
    • Shut
    • $3.3B
    • Support 76
     The investable opportunity in space radiation-hardened silicon is not the fab or the high-assurance incumbents but fabless RHBD IP, rad-tolerant SoCs, and qualification tooling built on commercial foundry nodes (FD-SOI / FinFET).
  9. 9Commercial LEO stations
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $1.8B
    • Support 76
     Commercial LEO destinations: the ISS deorbit puts a hard date on a market that has never had one (watch)
  10. 10Space power beaming
    • Bear
    • Not dated
    • $1.3B
    • Support 76
     Laser (and some microwave) power beaming is moving from ground records to the first in-orbit tests, led by Star Catcher's Protostar (launched 1 Oct 2026).
  11. 11Nanomechanical space systems
    • Bear
    • Early
    • Support 76
     By 2030, nanomechanical compute devices are deployed in 10+ orbiting satellites for radiation-hard / low-power use cases.