Theses›Space›Nanomechanical space systems

Nanomechanical space systems

By 2030, nanomechanical compute devices are deployed in 10+ orbiting satellites for radiation-hard / low-power use cases.

  • Bear
  • Early

The callNanomechanical computing has no seller, no buyer and no contract after 20 years; the forecast is kept so it can be scored, and I expect its own 2027 checkpoint to fail.

D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1Thousands of satellites now process images and signals on board, and proposals for orbital datacentres multiply the need for compute that survives radiation.
  2. D2A single charged particle flips a bit or fries a gate in a transistor, so rad-hard chips are slow and generations behind; mechanical switches ignore the charge.
  3. R1After 15-20 years there is no nanomechanical compute spinout, no flight heritage and no named satellite contract.
  4. R2The rad-hard compute exits went to incumbents: VORAGO to Microchip, CAES to Honeywell for $1.9B as a diversified defence business.
  5. R3Capital is lab-stage device physics plus flight qualification on a satellite payload, with no market to pay for it.
  6. C1At least one nanomechanical compute device flown on-orbit or placed under a named satellite contract, the first sign the technology left the lab.end-2027
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
20272028202920302031today12345predictionswatch 20272028202920302031today12345predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1By end-2027 at least one nanomechanical compute device is flown on-orbit or placed under a named satellite contract — first datapoint toward 10+ satellites by 2030.Dec 2027 · open
  2. 2A nanomechanical compute device on-orbit or under a named satellite contract; I expect this to fail.Dec 2027 · open
  3. 3The Mohanty group taking a commercial path, a spinout or a licence.Dec 2028 · open
  4. 4By 2030, nanomechanical devices deployed in 10+ orbiting satellites.Dec 2030 · open
  5. 510+ satellites carrying such devices, or NASA and DoD awards naming nanomechanical space-grade compute.Dec 2030 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
  • BA.LBAE Systems
    • expensive
     Sells conventional rad-hard single-board computers that hold today's satellite compute job a nanomechanical computer would have to displace; sells no nanomechanical product.
  • MCHPMicrochip Technology (incl. VORAGO)
    • cheap
     Sells rad-hard and rad-tolerant processors, FPGAs and, through acquired VORAGO, HARDSIL rad-hard microcontrollers for spacecraft; no nanomechanical product.

1 more private company tracked, not shown

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