Theses›Space›Space power electronics

Space power electronics

Space power: the kilowatt-class platform generation and where the power layer's value sits (watch)

  • Bear
  • Early
  • $1.4B by 2035

The callSatellites jump to tens of kilowatts, but K2 and Apex build their power in-house, so the merchant layer a startup would sell into may never exist.

D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1Satellite power goes from hundreds of watts to tens of kilowatts in one bus generation, for electric propulsion, on-board AI and manoeuvring defence constellations.
  2. D2European sovereignty and the 65% local-content rule create a slot for a merchant European rad-tolerant supplier.
  3. R1The platform builders in-house it: K2 builds 85% of its platform, and more content per satellite is cancelled by more in-house building.
  4. R2The merchant slice is about $50M today and $180M by 2030, so a dominant supplier is a $20-40M business; SolAero went to Rocket Lab for $80M.
  5. R3The cells sit with the AZUR and Spectrolab duopoly.
  6. C1The EU 65% local-content rule extends to ESA, IRIS2 and European Defence Fund space buying, opening a slot for a merchant European rad-tolerant power supplier.2028
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
20272028202920302031today1234567predictionswatch 20272028202920302031today1234567predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1No independent merchant supplier of spacecraft power conversion announces a round of $50M or more between 6 Nov 2026 and 31 Jan 2027.Jan 2027 · open
  2. 2K2's Gravitas fires its 20kW thruster and deploys both 10kW arrays on orbit, or does not.Mar 2027 · open
  3. 3NASA names the mid-power reactor vendors.Jun 2027 · open
  4. 4A spacecraft carrying more than 10 kW of installed electrical power flies as a production unit before end-2028.Dec 2028 · open
  5. 5A spacecraft over 10kW flies as a production unit; by end-2030 whether any merchant power supplier passes $50M.Dec 2028 · open
  6. 6No independent merchant supplier of spacecraft power conversion reaches $50M annual revenue by end-2030.Dec 2030 · open
  7. 7A US or European space fission reactor delivers electrical power on orbit or on the lunar surface by end-2030.Dec 2030 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
Private · 11 private companies, 8 of them in the US.

K2 Space · Impulse Space · Frontgrade Technologies · Enpulsion · Apex Space · Advanced Cooling Technologies (ACT) · Zeno Power Systems · Solestial (formerly Regher Solar) · Morpheus Space · Apogee Semiconductor · EnduroSat

7 more private companies tracked, not shown

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$258M raised by 2 companies, $269M of it in the last three years. Wave building: Money is arriving: recent rounds and tier-1 funds are in, but no runaway leader yet.

Backed by a top-tier venture firm: EnduroSat. Backed by a strategic investor: EnduroSat.

What changedthe record, newest first
  • 27 Jul 2026Satellite power is going from hundreds of watts to tens of kilowatts in one platform generation, and almost nobody is pricing the power electronics that implies.