Theses›Space›In-space mobility

In-space mobility

In-space mobility: private capital is running an order of magnitude ahead of the government line item (watch)

  • Bear
  • Early
  • $5.6B by 2035
D1D2D3R1R2R3C1C2foragainst D1D2D3R1R2R3C1C2foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1Tens of thousands of satellites, stations and cislunar missions need logistics; today a satellite is launched once, carries all its fuel and is thrown away when the tank runs dry.
  2. D2Hall thrusters past 10kW, standard docking and refuelling interfaces and autonomous rendezvous make moving or topping up a satellite cheaper than launching a new one.
  3. D3The EU Space Act would make a servicing interface and disposal licence conditions for every spacecraft.
  4. R1Private money is an order of magnitude ahead of the buyer: Impulse $500M at $4.26B plus a $308M extension, Starfish over $150M, against $29M of US appropriations in two years.
  5. R2No recurring commercial revenue exists anywhere in the layer; the demos can all succeed without anyone paying for the service afterwards.
  6. R3Vehicle operators need more capital than early funding reaches; Momentus is the value-destruction comparable, Astroscale listed at about $995M.
  7. C1Astroscale's US Refueler attempts the first US hydrazine refuelling in geostationary orbit and Tetra-5 attempts autonomous docking.30 Jun 2027
  8. C2The EU Space Act's in-space operations chapter enters force, making a servicing interface and disposal licence conditions for every spacecraft.2034
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
2027202820292030today123456predictionswatch 2027202820292030today123456predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1At least one of the US servicing and refuelling demonstrators launches between 6 Nov 2026 and 31 Jan 2027.Jan 2027 · open
  2. 2At least two of the four 2026-27 US servicing and refuelling demonstration missions complete their primary objective.Jun 2028 · open
  3. 3At least 2 of the 4 US servicing demos (Astroscale US Refueler, Tetra-5, Kamino, Starfish Otter) meeting their primary objective.Jun 2028 · open
  4. 4US appropriations for on-orbit servicing, mobility and logistics exceed $250M in a single fiscal year by FY2029.Sep 2029 · open
  5. 5No in-space mobility or servicing company reports majority-commercial (non-government) revenue above $50M by end-2029.Dec 2029 · open
  6. 6Any company in the layer reporting majority-commercial revenue above $50M; a 10kW+ Hall thruster on orbit; a merchant propulsion win across several operators.Dec 2029 · open
  • ·A US appropriation above $250M in one fiscal year.
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
  • RDWRedwire
    • full
  • NOCNorthrop Grumman (SpaceLogistics)
    • not screened
     Sells GEO satellite life-extension by docking vehicles and add-on propulsion pods to fleet operators such as Intelsat and Optus (SpaceLogistics unit of Northrop Grumman).
  • 186A.TAstroscale
    • not screened
     Sells debris inspection and removal, end-of-life and life-extension missions and a refuelling spacecraft, mostly to space agencies and defence (JAXA, UK Space Agency, US Space Force), plus GEO operators.
  • RKLBRocket Lab
    • not screened
     Builds Photon spacecraft, derived from its Electron kick stage, that move payloads to their final orbit, including transfer to the Moon (NASA CAPSTONE) and Varda reentry capsule carriers.
Private · 15 private companies, 7 of them in the US.

Paladin Space · Morpheus Space · Momentus · Inversion Space · Impulse Space · GITAI · Enpulsion · D-Orbit · ATMOS Space Cargo · Turion Space · Starfish Space · Lodestar Space Ltd · ClearSpace · Orbit Fab · Portal Space Systems

2 more private companies tracked, not shown

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$1.8B raised by 6 companies, $1.4B of it in the last three years. Wave under way: Large rounds in the last three years; the category is funded and getting crowded.

Backed by a top-tier venture firm: Impulse Space. Backed by a strategic investor: Starfish Space, Orbit Fab, ClearSpace.

What changedthe record, newest first
  • 27 Jul 2026There is now over a billion dollars of private capital in moving things around in orbit, and about twenty-nine million dollars of appropriated money paying for it.