Theses›Energy

Energy

Generation, storage and the grid that carries it.

  • 12 theses
  • 3 bull
  • 7 bear
Early10289Open7Closing3412561Shut11 Early10289Open7Closing3412561Shut11
Fig. 1Where the bets sit: windows from Early to Shut, left to right; each plot's area is the market's size by 2035. A double outline is a bull call, a single one a bear call, a dashed one a thesis with no call written yet. Washed: Perovskite tandem PV, the largest bull call. 1 not yet sized are drawn small.
The marketsnumbered as the plan
  1. 1Grid electrification
    • Closing
    • Support 94
     The grid + electrical-equipment buildout, the biggest AI-infrastructure opportunity
  2. 2Fusion
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $14B
    • Support 90
     By the end of 2032, at least one privately-funded fusion startup demonstrates grid-connected net-positive electricity (Q_total > 1, including all balance-of-plant, sustained for >1 hour).
  3. 3Flexible compute as a grid asset
    • Bull
    • Closing
    • $32B
    • Support 86
     AI load arrives faster than the grid can be built (5-7yr interconnection queues vs ~2yr to build a datacentre).
  4. 4Advanced nuclear SMRs
    • Bear
    • Closing
    • $18B
    • Support 86
     Small modular and advanced fission reactors (50-300 MWe, factory-built, >90% capacity factor) reach first commercial datacentre deployments this decade, driven by hyperscaler firm-power PPAs (Google-Kairos, Amazon-X-energy, Microsoft-Constellation).
  5. 5Solid-state transformers
    • Bull
    • Closing
    • $5.9B
    • Support 86
     The conventional-transformer shortage plus the 800 VDC datacentre migration (NVIDIA/OCP standard, committed Oct 2025-Mar 2026, deployment from 2027) opens a venture-scale market for wide-bandgap solid-state transformers (MV-in to HVDC-to-rack).
  6. 6Electrolyser materials
    • Bear
    • Closing
    • $4.1B
    • Support 86
     Electrolyser components and materials (catalyst-coated membranes, porous transport layers, membranes, coated bipolar plates) sold to electrolyser OEMs
  7. 7Perovskite tandem PV
    • Bull
    • Open
    • $4B
    • Support 86
     Perovskite-silicon tandem reaches ≥10% of new-build utility-scale PV by 2032 and continues compounding
  8. 8Offshore power islands
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $772M
    • Support 86
     A sibling of space-based-datacentre in the 'escape the grid + land bottleneck' family, but far cheaper to reach: instead of a spaceport, deploy from a dry dock.
  9. 9Next-gen geothermal
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $690M
    • Support 86
     Next-generation geothermal (Fervo-style EGS, Eavor closed-loop, Quaise superhot-rock / mm-wave drilling) turns geothermal from a geographically-limited niche into go-anywhere firm baseload IF drilling cost per metre falls enough to hit sub-$60/MWh (geothermal averaged ~$68/MWh in 2025).
  10. 10Next-gen batteries
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $141B
    • Support 44
     The materials layer is the only venture-shaped part of solid-state, and CATL and Toyota internalise any proven chemistry; nothing changes until an independent supplier is qualified.
  11. 11Baseload power
    • Shut
    • $12B
    • Support 22
     Firm, 24/7, carbon-free baseload power is the binding SUPPLY-side constraint on AI datacentre and electrification growth this decade (the supply-side mirror of the demand-side ai power thermal binding).
  12. 12Glazing-integrated photonics
    • Bear
    • Closing
    • $14B
     One physics claim, two end markets.