Theses›Energy›Next-gen geothermal

Next-gen geothermal

Next-generation geothermal (Fervo-style EGS, Eavor closed-loop, Quaise superhot-rock / mm-wave drilling) turns geothermal from a geographically-limited niche into go-anywhere firm baseload IF drilling cost per metre falls enough to hit sub-$60/MWh (geothermal averaged ~$68/MWh in 2025).

  • Bear
  • Early
  • $690M by 2035

The callThe developer story is consensus and infrastructure-sized; the startup layer is gyrotrons and high-temperature sensing, and it waits on superhot drilling leaving the lab.

D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1AI datacentres and electrifying grids need firm clean power almost anywhere, and conventional geothermal only works over volcanic hot spots.
  2. D2Mechanical bits slow and wear in deep hot rock, so millimetre-wave drilling that vaporises rock changes the master variable, drilling cost.
  3. R1Superhot-rock drilling is still a lab result, about 100m shown, and no component-supplier contract has surfaced.
  4. R2Developers raise at infrastructure scale, Quaise needed $280M for one 50 MW project, so they are public or angel deals, not seed ones.
  5. R3The supplier layer may pool to the driller or to SLB and Baker Hughes, and the DOE target of $45/MWh is for 2035.
  6. C1Quaise's Project Obsidian opening its 50 MW drilling front at Newberry, the first commercial superhot-rock well programme drilled with a gyrotron.2027
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
20272028202920302031today1234predictionswatch 20272028202920302031today1234predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1Quaise announces breaking ground, or first drilling with its gyrotron at depth, at Project Obsidian (Newberry, Oregon) between 6 Nov 2026 and 31 Jan 2027.Jan 2027 · open
  2. 2Quaise fires its next gyrotron, about 10x the power, at depth, or breaks ground on its pilot plant.Dec 2028 · open
  3. 3Next-gen geothermal delivered LCOE crosses sub-$60/MWh at utility scale, breaking the master-variable wall.Dec 2030 · open
  4. 4Next-gen geothermal printing a utility-scale price below $60/MWh.Dec 2030 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
Private · 9 private companies, 7 of them in the US; none in continental Europe.

Fervo Energy · Eavor Technologies · Quaise Energy · Sage Geosystems · AltaRock Energy · Superhot Rock Energy (SHR) / GA Drilling · GreenFire Energy · Zanskar · XGS Energy

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$3.4B raised by 6 companies, $3B of it in the last three years. Wave under way: Large rounds in the last three years; the category is funded and getting crowded.

Backed by a top-tier venture firm: Quaise Energy, Eavor Technologies. Backed by a strategic investor: Eavor Technologies.

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