Theses›Energy›Next-gen batteries

Next-gen batteries

The materials layer is the only venture-shaped part of solid-state, and CATL and Toyota internalise any proven chemistry; nothing changes until an independent supplier is qualified.

  • Bear
  • Early
  • $141B by 2035

The callBear, narrowly, because the cell makers internalise or second-source any proven chemistry and the one dated catalyst has slipped for a decade. If this is wrong the market goes from $20B to $141B by 2035 and a solid-electrolyte supplier becomes the materials company of the era.

D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1Cars on 800V, grid storage, drones and robots all need more energy per kilo and more safety than a flammable liquid electrolyte and graphite anode can give.
  2. D2A solid electrolyte that conducts like a liquid, stays stable against lithium metal, and is made roll-to-roll at today's electrolyte cost is the unlock every cell maker needs.
  3. R1Cell makers internalise or second-source any proven chemistry, so value leaks to CATL and Toyota.
  4. R2Even the materials route is capital-heavy: Sila needed $300M plus a $1.4B DoD loan for Moses Lake, and cells destroy venture money (Northvolt, FREYR).
  5. R3QuantumScape's licence with Volkswagen's PowerCo was cut to milestone payments and it is listed at about $3.4B, which weakens the licensor case.
  6. C1Toyota and Idemitsu starting sulfide all-solid-state production, the first carmaker qualification of an independent solid-electrolyte supplier.mid-2027
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
20272028202920302031today1234predictionswatch 20272028202920302031today1234predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1At least one battery-materials or process-IP company announces a production supply agreement with a named automaker between 6 Nov 2026 and 31 Jan 2027.Jan 2027 · open
  2. 2An anode-materials independent holding carmaker design-win volume plus a real moat; second checkpoint 30 Jun 2027.Mar 2027 · open
  3. 3At least one solid-state / advanced battery-MATERIALS or process-IP company (not a cell manufacturer) reaches Tier-1/OEM production qualification or a >=Series B by end-2030.Dec 2030 · open
  4. 4At least one battery materials or process company reaching tier-1 production qualification or a Series B.Dec 2030 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
  • QSQuantumScape Corporation
    • not screened
  • SESSES AI Corporation
    • expensive
  • SLDPSolid Power, Inc.
    • speculative
  • 600884.SSNingbo Shanshan (Shanshan anode business)
    • not screened
     Makes artificial-graphite anode materials for lithium-ion cell makers (EV and consumer cells).
  • 001301.SZShangtai Technology
    • not screened
     Makes artificial-graphite anode materials for lithium-ion cell makers.
  • 300035.SZZhongke Electric (Hunan Zhongke Shinzoom)
    • not screened
     Its subsidiary Shinzoom makes graphite anode materials for lithium-ion cell makers; ticker is the parent's.
  • 603659.SSShanghai Putailai (Zichen)
    • not screened
     Its Zichen subsidiaries make graphite anode materials and run graphitization for lithium-ion cell makers.
  • 002709.SZGuangzhou Tinci Materials
    • not screened
     Makes lithium-ion electrolytes and lithium hexafluorophosphate salt for cell makers.
Private · 8 private companies, 3 of them in the US.

M-Spin · Group14 Technologies · Echion Technologies · LeydenJar · E-magy · Ionic Mineral Technologies (Ionic MT) · Altris · Ampcera

3 more private companies tracked, not shown

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$1.2B raised by 7 companies, $597M of it in the last three years. Wave under way: Large rounds in the last three years; the category is funded and getting crowded.

Backed by a top-tier venture firm: LeydenJar. Backed by a strategic investor: Group14 Technologies, Altris, Ampcera.