Theses›Energy›Baseload power

Baseload power

Firm, 24/7, carbon-free baseload power is the binding SUPPLY-side constraint on AI datacentre and electrification growth this decade (the supply-side mirror of the demand-side ai power thermal binding).

  • Shut
  • $12B by 2035

The call, a draftFirm power is the supply limit on AI datacentres this decade, and utilities and listed developers are winning it with restarts and long contracts while new reactors slip past 2030. The plant market reads structural, held by incumbents.

D1D2D3D4R1R2R3C1C2C3foragainst D1D2D3D4R1R2R3C1C2C3foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the drivers.
  1. D1The IEA puts datacentre electricity at about 945 TWh by 2030, and the US peak-load forecast rose to 166 GW, about 6x what utilities expected in 2022.
  2. D2PJM's capacity auction cleared at $14.7B, up from $2.2B a year earlier.
  3. D3The DOE awarded $900M enrichment task orders to Centrus, Orano and one other in Jan 2026, and three TRISO-fuelled pilot reactors went critical in Jun-Jul 2026.
  4. D4Buyers pay for time to power: Bloom Energy's backlog went from $3.2B in 2019 to $20B in 2025.
  5. R1First-of-kind SMRs slip: NuScale's Romania plant moved from 2030 to 2033, and Oklo's first Aurora is 2028 at best, 2030-31 on conservative estimates.
  6. R2A reactor, enrichment plant or fuel line costs $900M or more before first output.
  7. R3Hyperscaler firm-power contracts are signed, but the megawatts have not been delivered.
  8. C1Three Mile Island Unit 1 restarts to supply Microsoft.31 Dec 2027
  9. C2Oklo's first Aurora powerhouse starts operating.31 Dec 2028
  10. C3A venture-backed supplier outside the national labs ships qualified HALEU or TRISO fuel at several tonnes a year.31 Dec 2030
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
20272028202920302031today1234watch 20272028202920302031today1234watch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1Meta's Clinton contract with Constellation starting in June 2027.Jun 2027 · open
  2. 2The Three Mile Island Unit 1 restart in H2 2027.Dec 2027 · open
  3. 3Oklo's first Aurora, against its 2028 best case.Dec 2028 · open
  4. 4HALEU deliveries against DOE's 40-tonne line.Dec 2030 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
Private · 12 private companies, 5 of them in the US.

TerraPower · Steady Energy · Standard Nuclear · Radiant Industries · Pulsar Fusion · Newcleo · Last Energy · Kairos Power · Exosens · Copenhagen Atomics · Blykalla · Quaise Energy

Technologies
What changedthe record, newest first
  • 20 Jul 2026AI strategy that is not energy policy is decoration. The countries that will host the world's inference are the ones with spare electrons, and you can already name them.
  • 22 Jun 2026The grid, not the fab, is now the binding constraint on compute: US peak-load forecasts have been revised up ~6x since 2022, and datacentre power demand roughly doubles by 2030.
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