Theses›Consumer devices

Consumer devices

What people carry, wear and put in their homes.

  • 7 theses
  • 1 bull
  • 6 bear
Early127Shut4653 Early127Shut4653
Fig. 1Where the bets sit: windows from Early to Shut, left to right; each plot's area is the market's size by 2035. A double outline is a bull call, a single one a bear call, a dashed one a thesis with no call written yet. Washed: AR display optics, the largest bull call.
The marketsnumbered as the plan
  1. 1AR display optics
    • Bull
    • Early
    • $22B
    • Support 85
     The smart-glasses optical stack splits into a light engine (generate RGB), a combiner (get it to the eye), and the prescription lens.
  2. 2Structured micro-optics
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $4B
    • Support 85
     Two European component layers share one claim: the value in an optical element is moving out of assembled, polished glass and into a manufactured microstructure, replicated at wafer scale or written directly onto a substrate.
  3. 3Metalenses
    • Bear
    • Shut
    • $920M
    • Support 85
     Metasurface flat optics (platform)
  4. 4MEMS sensing and actuation
    • Bear
    • Shut
    • $42B
    • Support 66
     MEMS sensing & actuation is a real and growing market (>$19B by 2030) but a foundry-scale, cost-per-unit, qualification-driven business where the durable value is held by the Bosch/ST/TDK/Infineon oligopoly; no European MEMS startup reaches venture scale independently this decade, the…
  5. 5Image sensor silicon
    • Bear
    • Shut
    • $1.4B
    • Support 66
     New sensor types (SPAD, shortwave infrared, event) grow 10-20% a year and each gets bought or licensed by Sony, ST or onsemi once it proves out.
  6. 6Ferroelectric memory
    • Bear
    • Shut
    • $9.4B
    • Support 58
     Hafnium-oxide-based ferroelectric memory (FeFET, FeRAM) captures ≥5% of embedded non-volatile memory units by 2030, up from <0.5% in 2024.
  7. 7AR optics test and metrology
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $1.2B
     As display glasses scale, every waveguide needs an inline image-quality test (eyebox, MTF, uniformity, colour) and every waveguide wafer needs grating and flatness metrology.