Theses›Consumer devices›Image sensor silicon
Image sensor silicon
New sensor types (SPAD, shortwave infrared, event) grow 10-20% a year and each gets bought or licensed by Sony, ST or onsemi once it proves out.
- Bear
- Shut
- $1.4B by 2035
The callThe bear case is more likely for a standalone sensor company: the absorption is observed, with onsemi, Zeiss, Canon and Sony each taking an architecture as it proved out. The slice counted here goes from $600M to about $1.4B by 2035.
- D1Machines become the main buyer of cameras: robots, cars and glasses need depth, low-light and beyond-visible sight rather than a nice photo.
- D2Phone-photography pixels integrate light over a frame and can't time single photons or see past the visible; photon-counting pixels with compute underneath can.
- D3Quantum dots put shortwave-infrared sensitivity on a silicon readout made on open foundries rather than in Sony's fabs.
- R1The absorption is observed: onsemi bought SWIR Vision for about $20.5M, Zeiss bought Pi Imaging, Canon showed a computational SPAD for mass production, Sony mass-produces SPAD.
- R2GE built its own photon-counting CT detector rather than buy one; the usual startup exit is a $20-100M trade sale.
- R3New companies depend on the incumbents' processes: at least one SPAD company is sole-sourced on ST.
- C1Smart glasses reach 27.3M units and head-worn always-on sensing plus automotive depth sensing form a merchant SPAD chip market.2030
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
- 1A fabless SPAD or quantum-dot company with portable IP on an open foundry process.Dec 2027 · open
- 2A clear reason why ST and Sony haven't built SPADs with in-pixel compute themselves.Dec 2028 · open
- 3Smart glasses at 27.3M units and a merchant SPAD chip market forming for head-worn and automotive sensing.Dec 2030 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
- 603501.SSWill Semiconductor
- fair
- 6965.THamamatsu Photonics
- full
- AMBAAmbarella
- full
- AMS.SWams-OSRAM
- cheap
- CGNXCognex
- expensive
- HIMXHimax Technologies
- fair
- SHL.DESiemens Healthineers AG
- full
- SONYSony Group
- full
- STMSTMicroelectronics
- fair
- TDYTeledyne Technologies
- fair
- TRUEON Semiconductor
- cheap
Private · 6 private companies, 2 of them in Switzerland.
Adaps Photonics · S-Sentia · Pi Imaging Technology · Fastree3D · PIXPOLAR · SWIR Vision Systems
13 more private companies tracked, not shown
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources
$5M raised by 4 companies, $2M of it in the last three years. Wave building: Money is arriving: recent rounds, but no runaway leader yet.
- $5MSWIR Vision Systems
- Founded 2018
- ·Adaps Photonics
- Founded 2018
- ·Pi Imaging Technology
- Founded 2018
- ·Fastree3D
- Founded 2018
What changedthe record, newest first
- 3 Aug 2026Went looking for who else builds single-photon sensors and found I had the wrong incumbent in my head. The company to beat is not the one that dominates ordinary camera sensors. More usefully: one of the large incumbents demonstrated a prototype in January doing exactly the clever thing the startups say is their edge, and said it is heading for mass production. That is the kind of evidence that should move a view, and it moved mine toward caution.
- 3 Aug 2026The best European company in a niche I have been tracking was quietly bought by a large instrument maker a year ago, after a commercial partnership turned into an acquisition. I had it filed as independent the whole time. Two lessons, and the second is the expensive one: check whether the companies in your comparison set still exist in the form you think, and treat a deepening partnership with an incumbent as the most likely exit route rather than a validation signal.