Theses›Semiconductor manufacturing›Nanotube electronics

Nanotube electronics

Carbon nanotubes used as electronics (transistors, memory, RF, sensors, and chip-process materials such as EUV pellicles) reach chip-industry volume first as fab consumables and sensors, by 2030.

  • Bear
  • Not dated
  • $333M by 2035

The callNanotubes arrive the slow way, pellicles and sensors first, while logic is a Chinese state programme; only full-wafer placement with a named fab customer looks like a business.

Disclosure: TrimTabs, a company in the carbon nanotube market, pays me to write a newsletter for it.

D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1Logic has to go 3D monolithic and silicon cannot be grown on finished metal layers, while nanotube transistors lay down at low temperature and stack.
  2. D2EUV scanners ramping to 600W is when nanotube pellicles matter, and ASML certification would start royalties on 15-20k sheets a year.
  3. R1No venture-scale exit ever: Nantero raised $110M+ and had its equipment auctioned, Carbonics is dormant, and the listed pellicle-reactor maker is worth about €186M, down from €360M.
  4. R2Logic is a Chinese state programme, so whatever window it opens is theirs; no non-Chinese foundry offers a nanotube process.
  5. R3Placement at 99.9999%+ purity, aligned across a 300mm wafer with sub-1 kΩ contacts, is unsolved and capital-heavy.
  6. C1ASML qualifying nanotube EUV pellicles for its ~600W scanners, promised for 2027 and already slipped once; it does not widen the field for newcomers.2027
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
Threatened by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
202720282029today1234567predictionswatch 202720282029today1234567predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1By 30 Jun 2027 Mitsui Chemicals or Lintec publicly confirms nanotube EUV pellicle shipments to a logic or DRAM fab.Jun 2027 · open
  2. 2Mitsui or Lintec confirming production pellicle shipments, and a placement-robot maker naming a customer.Jun 2027 · open
  3. 3The listed pellicle-reactor maker's FY2026 bulletin: semiconductor revenue under €10M, and whether any FST royalties appear.Dec 2027 · open
  4. 4No non-Chinese foundry offers a carbon nanotube transistor process to outside customers by end-2028.Dec 2028 · open
  5. 5The PKU Chongqing Carbon-based IC Research Institute does not reach its stated 100,000 wafers/yr nanotube capacity by end-2028.Dec 2028 · open
  6. 6No carbon nanotube memory product (NRAM or any other) ships from any vendor by end-2028.Dec 2028 · open
  7. 7A non-Chinese foundry offering a nanotube process, nanotube memory shipping, or Chongqing hitting its 100,000-wafer target.Dec 2028 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
  • SKYTSkywater Technology
    • not screened
  • 036810.KQFine Semitech (FST)
    • not screened
  • 4183.TMitsui Chemicals
    • not screened
     EUV pellicles for chipmakers under ASML licence, building CNT pellicle capacity with imec (~5,000 sheets/yr planned).
  • 7966.TLintec
    • not screened
     CNT EUV pellicle sheets for chipmakers, ~JPY7B invested for ~10,000 sheets/yr; production start unverified.
  • 6701.TNEC
    • not screened
     Uncooled infrared image sensor built on semiconducting CNTs, targeted for practical use from 2025 in automotive, aviation and security; shipment unverified.
Private · 8 private companies, 4 of them in the US.

FST (Fine Semitech) · IMEC · Nantero · Suzhou Xijing Semiconductor (烯晶半导体) · Carbonics · NanoIntegris · Chasm Advanced Materials · Brewer Science

5 more private companies tracked, not shown

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$6M raised by 1 company, $31M of it in the last three years. Early: Little money in so far; a lead investor would set the pace.

What changedthe record, newest first
  • 12 Oct 2026Nanotube electronics has one real revenue line today, a fab consumable (EUV pellicles), and it shrank this year; the transistor story is now mostly a Chinese state programme.
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