Trends›Chip supply splits West and China
Chip supply splits West and China
Repeated US-led export controls ratchet the semiconductor supply chain into two non-interoperable stacks (a Western alliance on ASML EUV and TSMC/Samsung leading-edge, and a Chinese domestic stack on indigenised equipment), with sunk capex on both sides making reversal politically infeasible by 2030.
75 confidence, computed 23 Oct 2026
- Political
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Rests onfacts underneath
What rests on thismarkets it underwrites or threatens
Evidencethe schedule the figure draws
The evidence, newest first
- Oct 2026
for · claim CXMT's Cao Kanyu said a 4F2 (vertical surrounded-gate) DDR5 RDIMM server part is due before end-2026, about two years ahead of Samsung's expected 2028 4F2; >300 patents published. CXMT president says first 4F2 DRAM will be a server DDR5 RDIMM by year-end (Shanghai conference) - Aug 2026
for · claim Private source - Jul 2026
for · observable Private source - Jul 2026
neutral · observable Capital is not the binding constraint on Chinese memory sovereignty; tools and yield are. CXMT IPO proceeds fund DRAM, not leading-edge HBM - Jul 2026
for · primary China's DRAM champion raised RMB57.92bn (~$8.6bn) domestically and became the most valuable mainland-listed company on day one (+466%, ~RMB3.3tn, displacing ICBC). CXMT's $8.6bn STAR Market IPO, Asia's largest of 2026 - Jul 2026
for · claim Kimi K3 week clarifies the boundary of the bifurcation rather than denting it: open weights cross the wall freely (Apache 2.0 torrents, fine-tunes launder provenance) while silicon, EUV tools and equipment do not, and this page's claim is about the… The Once and Future Kimi (State of the Future) - Jul 2026
for · observable OpenAI researcher argues data should be treated as a national strategic asset like compute, and warns China's greater state capacity and authoritarian economic control could mobilise data collection at national scale, compounding its economy and scientific output faster. A Stargate for Data — will depue (OpenAI) - Jun 2026
for · primary U.S. Dutch government irritated by U.S. plans for new ASML export restrictions - Jun 2026
for · observable YMTC NAND market share rose to ~13%, reported as alarming Samsung, SK hynix and Micron - Chinese domestic memory capacity taking share, the indigenisation slice of the bifurcation. YMTC NAND share rises to ~13% (via Semi Doped Daily) - Jun 2026
for · observable US Commerce/BIS accused ASML of shipping EUV-compatible components to Chinese customers and is weighing enforcement (ASML denies delivering full EUV systems) - active enforcement pressure hardening the Western-equipment perimeter. US Commerce accuses ASML of EUV-component shipments to China (via Semi Doped Daily) - Jun 2026
for · observable U.S. US Tells ASML It Has Evidence EUV Lithography Tool Reached China - Jun 2026
for · observable SMIC guided adding 40,000 12-inch-equivalent wafers monthly by end of 2026, focused on mature nodes. SMIC Capacity Expansion and Mature-Node Dominance 2026 - May 2026
for · observable China's fab capacity expansion by 2026 will exceed 6 million 300mm-equivalent wafer starts per year. China Semiconductor Fabrication Materials Market to Exceed $28-32B by 2026 - Apr 2026
against · observable Even with full H200 exports permitted, the US would hold a 21-49 times advantage in AI compute produced in 2026 over China. US China Chip Export Controls H200 2026: The Policy Shift Explained - Apr 2026
for · observable SMIC 7nm yield rates reported between 20–40% and targeting 5nm mass production in 2026, indicating viable non-EUV path with state subsidy support. SMIC AI Chip Strategy 2026: Inside China's 5nm Power Play - Apr 2026
for · primary ASML expects China revenue to normalize to ~20% of total sales in 2026, down from 33% in 2025, reflecting significant decline despite overall 2026 revenue guidance of €36-40 billion. ASML Holding NV - Form 6-K - FY2026 Q1 Results and Guidance - Mar 2026
for · observable China's fab-capacity share projected to ~31-32% by 2027-2030 (mature-node toward ~39-45%) — building a self-sufficient low/mid-node stack. China fab-capacity share toward ~32% by 2030 (DigiTimes/SEMI) - Mar 2026
against · primary NVIDIA's China AI chip market share declined from 90% to 50% by early 2026 as bifurcation accelerated via tariffs and domestic mandates. The events of 2025–2026 confirm supply chain bifurcation is accelerating - Mar 2026
against · observable Advanced chip manufacturing reshoring delayed: Samsung Texas fab pushed to 2027, Intel Ohio to 2030s, TSMC Arizona second fab to 2027. The advanced chip supply chain will remain concentrated in Taiwan and dependent on ASML for the foreseeable future - Jan 2026
neutral · observable Private source ASML China falls to 33% of 2025 sales, ~20% guided 2026 (CNBC) - Jan 2026
against · observable The case-by-case review pathway suggests BIS is fine-tuning export controls in response to technological developments, with strict conditions on supply, security, and testing requirements. BIS Revises Export Review Policy for Advanced AI Chips Destined for China and Macau - Jan 2026
against · primary Effective 15 Jan 2026 BIS moved advanced AI chips (Nvidia H200, AMD MI325X) for China from presumption-of-denial to case-by-case licensing — partially re-opening the Western stack to China. BIS moves advanced compute to case-by-case (Federal Register) - Dec 2025
for · observable SMIC reported running 5nm-class production on an N+3 node via multi-patterning DUV (no EUV) — a parallel indigenous leading-edge path, albeit at low yield/high cost. SMIC reported running 5nm-class on N+3 without EUV (TechPowerUp) - Dec 2025
for · observable TechInsights data shows SMIC N+3 achieves metal pitches near 35nm through multi-patterning but faces significant yield challenges and defect rates from DUV limitations. Chinese SMIC Produces 5nm Chips on N+3 Node Without Using EUV Equipment - Dec 2025
for · primary TechInsights teardown confirms SMIC N+3 volume production of 5nm-class node using only DUV multi-patterning without EUV, with Kirin 9030 in production. SMIC N+3 Confirmed: Kirin 9030 Analysis Reveals How Close SMIC Is to 5nm - Nov 2025
against · observable On 10 Nov 2025 BIS suspended the 50% Affiliates Rule for one year (through 9 Nov 2026) and removed several Chinese entities — a partial de-escalation cutting against irreversible bifurcation. BIS suspends Affiliates Rule for one year (Arnold & Porter) - Oct 2025
for · observable China expected to lead in 300mm equipment spending with $94 billion from 2026-2028, sustained by self-sufficiency policies. SEMI 300mm Fab Outlook - China Leading Equipment Investment 2026-2028 - Sep 2025
for · primary BIS's 50% Affiliates Rule (effective 29 Sep 2025) and VEU closure ended the license-free privilege for foreign-owned fabs in China and barred licences to expand their China capacity — hard-walling tooling access. BIS 50% Affiliates Rule + VEU closure (Sidley) - Sep 2025
for · observable CXMT/YMTC/Huawei are indigenising HBM via TSV/hybrid bonding — extending the domestic stack into AI-memory and cutting reliance on Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron. CXMT/YMTC/Huawei indigenise HBM (TrendForce) - Aug 2025
against · observable In Aug 2025 the administration let Nvidia (H20) and AMD resume China sales for 15% of China revenue — treating advanced chips as a tradable bargaining chip, not a hard wall. Trump greenlights Nvidia/AMD China sales for 15% revenue (Time)
What would move itthe measures watched
- watchBIS license-review posture for advanced compute to China (denial vs case-by-case). A shift toward case-by-case/approval softens bifurcation; reversion to denial hardens it
- watchSMIC leading-edge node status (7→5→3nm) and yield without EUV. Credible domestic 5nm/3nm mass production = a viable parallel Chinese stack; stalls = continued dependence
- watchASML China revenue share + EUV/DUV export-licence status. EUV ban intact + falling China share = stacks separating on tooling; any relaxation = re-integration
- watchChina share of global wafer-fab capacity (esp. mature nodes). Rising mature-node share signals a self-sufficient low/mid stack
- watchUS-China grand-bargain / detente signals (chip-for-rare-earth truces). Durable multi-year deals re-couple the stacks; one-year suspensions that lapse re-harden them