Theses›Semiconductor manufacturing›Advanced packaging

Advanced packaging

Packaging rent pools in materials, equipment and substrates, not OSAT assembly

  • Closing
  • $86B by 2035

The call, a draftPackaging is winning as the performance lever: $46B in 2024 and $79.4B by 2030 on Yole's numbers, with hybrid bonding and glass substrates moving into volume. The window is late, since the listed equipment and substrate makers have already re-rated past the gain.

D1D2D3R1R2R3R4C1C2C3foragainst D1D2D3R1R2R3R4C1C2C3foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the drivers.
  1. D1CoWoS-class capacity was fully booked with 52-78 week lead times in late 2025, and TSMC cut 28nm output by more than 25% to move capacity into advanced nodes and packaging.
  2. D2Hybrid bonding is in volume for logic (TSMC SoIC at 6µm, AMD 3D V-Cache, NVIDIA Rubin), and BESI's Q1 2026 bookings of €269.7M more than doubled year on year across about 20 customers.
  3. D3Glass substrates got dates in 2026: Intel showed thick-core glass at NEPCON Japan on 30 Jan and is moving it into volume at Chandler, and TSMC targets CoWoS-G volume in H2 2026.
  4. R1The listed expressions have re-rated hard, with BESI at about 50-68x forward earnings and Ibiden up about 690% in a year.
  5. R2JEDEC raised the HBM4 height limit, so HBM4 stays on micro-bumps and hybrid bonding for memory slips to HBM5 around 2028-29.
  6. R3Glass-core is still at pilot and qualification in 2026, with fragility and metal adhesion unsolved at volume yields.
  7. R4Packaging equipment and materials companies are usually bought before they scale, as Xperi's hybrid-bonding IP was, and the bonder layer stays with BESI and Applied Materials.
  8. C1TSMC's glass-substrate CoWoS-G reaches volume production for NVIDIA-class accelerators.31 Dec 2026
  9. C2A new accelerator or HBM generation ships with copper hybrid bonding under 10µm pitch, or a glass-core substrate enters customer qualification at a named chipmaker.30 Jun 2027
  10. C3A glass-core substrate reaches qualified volume production for an AI accelerator or HBM base.31 Dec 2028
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
202720282029today123456predictionswatch 202720282029today123456predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1TSMC CoWoS-G reaching volume production in H2 2026.Dec 2026 · open
  2. 2By mid-2027 at least one new named AI accelerator or HBM product generation ships using sub-10um-pitch copper hybrid bonding beyond the 2026 baseline, OR a glass-core substrate enters customer qualification at a named IDM/OSAT.Jun 2027 · open
  3. 3Advanced-packaging revenue grows faster than leading-edge logic-wafer revenue every year through 2028, as packaging absorbs more of the performance budget than the node.Dec 2028 · open
  4. 4Hybrid bonding becomes the dominant high-density 3D interconnect for HBM and logic-on-logic by 2028, displacing micro-bump for the leading tier.Dec 2028 · open
  5. 5Whether micro-bump is still the leading-tier default and glass is still at sampling.Dec 2028 · open
  6. 6Advanced-packaging revenue against leading-edge logic wafer revenue, year by year.Dec 2028 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
Private · 4 private companies.

IMEC · Besi (BE Semiconductor Industries) · Fraunhofer IZM · Absolics

8 more private companies tracked, not shown

Technologies
What changedthe record, newest first
  • 23 Jun 2026Glass chip substrates moved from "someday" to a dated 2026 schedule: Intel into volume manufacturing, TSMC targeting volume by year-end, Samsung-Korea suppliers shipping samples to AMD.
  • 23 Jun 2026The industry keeps voting for packaging over raw shrink: TSMC is cutting older-node output to free packaging capacity and Intel is staking its comeback on it.
  • 21 Jun 2026When chip substrates move from plastic to glass, the winners may be the display-glass companies (Corning, AGC, Schott) crossing into chips, a classic pick-and-shovel value migration, not the chipmakers themselves.
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