Theses›Industrial›Rare earths

Rare earths

Ex-China rare-earth & magnet supply stays structurally short through 2027; value accrues to non-Chinese separation, recovery, and RE-free magnets

  • Bull
  • Closing
  • $25B by 2035

The callMagnet scarcity outside China is real and priced; the route is public, and a European recovery or rare-earth-free magnet startup is the early one.

D1D2R1R2C1foragainst D1D2R1R2C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the drivers.
  1. D1After April 2025 the West decided it cannot rely on China for magnets, and the controls are holding: heavy rare-earth exports were still about 50% below baseline in June 2026.
  2. D2Separation and magnet-making, not mining, are the hard part: a solvent-extraction plant is $1B+ and years, and dysprosium and terbium are scarcest of all.
  3. R1China relaxes the controls, as general licences have eased civilian flows since December 2025, and prices crash as they did to MP in 2017-2020; the DoD floor protects only MP.
  4. R2Recovery and separation are tolling businesses with industrial margins and $1B plants, and reduced-dysprosium magnets and rare-earth-free motors can remove the scarcest part of the problem first.
  5. C1Niron's iron-nitride magnet plant in Sartell starts production, the first rare-earth-free magnet volume outside China's grip.2027
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
Threatened by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
202720282029today123456predictionswatch 202720282029today123456predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1The October truce on export licences expires; I expect China's controls to stay in force through 2027.Dec 2026 · open
  2. 2China's export-control regime on the medium/heavy REEs and on Tb/Dy-bearing NdFeB + SmCo magnets remains in force (not fully rescinded) through end-2027.Dec 2027 · open
  3. 3At least one European rare-earth-recovery, rare-earth-free-magnet, or novel-separation startup raises an institutional seed or Series A by end-2027.Dec 2027 · open
  4. 4A European recovery, separation or rare-earth-free magnet startup raises an institutional round.Dec 2027 · open
  5. 5ex-China NdFeB magnet output rises to >=15% of global by end-2028 (from ~6% in 2025).Dec 2028 · open
  6. 6Ex-China magnet output passes 15% of the world; Lynas is a lean-buy on paper with MP and USA Rare Earth tracked, none executed.Dec 2028 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
  • LYC.AXLynas Rare Earths
    • fair
  • MPMP Materials
    • expensive
  • USARUSA Rare Earth
    • expensive
  • 600111.SSChina Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech
    • not screened
     Mines and separates light rare earths at Bayan Obo and sells concentrates, oxides and metals to magnet makers; one of the two state groups holding China's mining quota.
  • 000831.SZChina Rare Earth Group (China Rare Earth Resources and Technology)
    • not screened
     State group formed by merging southern Chinese miners and separators; mines and separates medium and heavy rare earths (Dy, Tb) for magnet makers. Ticker is its listed arm.
  • 600392.SSShenghe Resources
    • not screened
     Separates and refines rare earths from Chinese and imported concentrates and sells oxides and metals to magnet makers.
  • NEO.TONeo Performance Materials
    • not screened
     Separates rare earths and makes bonded-magnet powders and sintered NdFeB magnets in Estonia and China for auto and industrial customers.
Private · 13 private companies, 5 of them in the US.

Rare Labs · Niron Magnetics · Cyclic Materials · Noveon Magnetics · HyProMag · Momentum Technologies · REEtec · Magneon · Less Common Metals (LCM) · Vacuumschmelze (VAC) · Vulcan Elements · Carester · Phoenix Tailings

1 more private company tracked, not shown

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$2.4B raised by 8 companies, $2.8B of it in the last three years. Wave under way: Large rounds in the last three years; the category is funded and getting crowded.

What changedthe record, newest first
  • 12 Aug 2026A magnet company I looked at this week claims it uses ten times less rare-earth material than conventional manufacturing. That sounds like it belongs in the supply-crunch argument, and it does not - the parts are microscopic, so the total material involved is a rounding error against motors and turbines. I am recording it because using dramatically less of a scarce input is a genuinely different response from finding a new source or engineering the material out, and none of the categories I had been tracking covered it. It would only start to matter if the same process ever pointed at something motor-sized.
  • 23 Jun 2026Rare-earth-free magnets are no longer lab-only: a US maker is now shipping commercial iron-nitride magnets and building a high-volume plant, though still in speakers not EV motors. Meanwhile the US has hard-wired the listed incumbent into a 10-year offtake with a price floor, which is the cleanest way the public route hardens.
  • 22 Jun 2026China is now using rare-earth export controls as active leverage, and the startup response is concentrating on refining, magnet-recycling and biomining wedges rather than mining itself.
1 earlier
  • 13 Jun 2026Rare earths are the clearest "control the chokepoint, not the commodity" story outside chips — China makes ~94% of the magnets the energy transition and defence run on, and is now rationing them. The cleanest way to hold the thesis is the listed ex-China pure-plays; whether a European recovery / RE-free-magnet startup is also backable is the live venture question.
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