Theses›Industrial

Industrial

What factories, plants and heavy industry buy.

  • 11 theses
  • 1 bull
  • 8 bear
Early7628Closing491Shut351011 Early7628Closing491Shut351011
Fig. 1Where the bets sit: windows from Early to Shut, left to right; each plot's area is the market's size by 2035. A double outline is a bull call, a single one a bear call, a dashed one a thesis with no call written yet. Washed: Rare earths, the largest bull call. 1 not yet sized are drawn small.
The marketsnumbered as the plan
  1. 1Distributed fibre sensing
    • Bear
    • Closing
    • $3B
    • Support 85
     Distributed fibre-optic sensing
  2. 2Quantum sensing
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $1.7B
    • Support 85
     GPS jamming makes quantum navigation necessary, but the buyers are defence programmes at R&D scale and the sensors are still hand-built lab racks.
  3. 3Specialty silicon
    • Shut
    • $197B
    • Support 84
     Specialty silicon (≥28nm RF, power, sensors, automotive) doubles to $80B+ revenue by 2030
  4. 4Rare earths
    • Bull
    • Closing
    • $25B
    • Support 82
     Ex-China rare-earth & magnet supply stays structurally short through 2027; value accrues to non-Chinese separation, recovery, and RE-free magnets
  5. 5At-line industrial analytics
    • Bear
    • Shut
    • $10B
    • Support 61
     Lab-grade measurement moves onto the production line (at-line industrial analytics)
  6. 6Mid-IR photonic sensing
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $2B
    • Support 61
     Mid-IR photonic sensing wins gas analysis and breath diagnostics by 2028
  7. 7Thermoelectric materials
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $5.8B
    • Support 58
     Thermoelectrics stays a perennial niche (Peltier spot-cooling + battery-free sensing); no manufacturable ZT step-change or datacentre design-win reopens waste-heat recovery as a venture-scale market through 2030 — pass by default, watch two tripwires
  8. 8Uncertainty-propagation compute
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $746M
    • Support 44
     Deterministic uncertainty-propagation compute: carrying probability distributions through existing scalar code, in a compiler and a co-processor, replaces Monte Carlo for low-to-mid dimensional problems
  9. 9Industrial condition monitoring
    • Bear
    • Closing
    • $13B
     Industrial condition and compliance monitoring: transducer plus analytics plus platform, sold to the asset owner (coverage theme)
  10. 10Energy harvesting
    • Bear
    • Shut
    • $1.5B
     Ambient energy harvesting (powering electronics from RF, light, vibration, thermal gradients) is a real technology with a structurally sub-venture market: the systems market converges around $1.0-1.2B by 2030 growing 8-10%, the silicon value sits in harvesting PMICs and transducers shipped…
  11. 11Spectral imaging
    • Shut
     Capturing spectral information beyond plain RGB on a chip, for material and chemical identification, is one coherent space, not four.