Theses›Automotive & mobility›LiDAR and ranging

LiDAR and ranging

LiDAR systems are a price war the volume incumbents have won; the one opening, FMCW ranging on a photonic chip, is a photonics component market.

  • Bear
  • Shut
  • $8.1B by 2035

The callBear, because the systems market rewards volume and Hesai and RoboSense already have it. If this is wrong the market goes from $2.9B to $8.1B by 2035 and the incumbents still keep the value.

D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1Robots, drones and cars keep adding 3D sensing that works in the dark and in glare where cameras fail.
  2. D2FMCW ranging on a foundry-made photonic chip gives velocity in every pixel, no moving parts and chip prices, which time-of-flight cannot.
  3. R1Hesai and RoboSense set a price floor on volume, so prices fall as fast as units rise and systems makers earn nothing.
  4. R2Automotive design-ins cost $100Ms and get cut: Volvo cut Luminar's volume by 90%, then ended the contract, and Luminar went into Chapter 11.
  5. R3The FMCW chip layer is closing by acquisition and to foundries, so even the component opening is narrowing.
  6. C1A European standalone LiDAR-systems startup, founded 2023 or later, raising €15M or more on the product would reopen the systems case.end-2027
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
20272028202920302031today12watch 20272028202920302031today12watch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1An independent FMCW-chip company keeping a non-automotive beachhead without being bought.Dec 2027 · open
  2. 2Whether any new European systems company reaches $500M on the product; I put that at about 20%.Dec 2030 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
Private · 4 private companies, 3 of them in the US; none in continental Europe.

Ouster (incl. Velodyne) · Seyond (formerly Innovusion) · Cepton · SiLC Technologies

12 more private companies tracked, not shown

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$1.1B raised by 6 companies, $132M of it in the last three years. Wave under way: Large rounds in the last three years; the category is funded and getting crowded.

Backed by a top-tier venture firm: Aeva Technologies, Seyond (formerly Innovusion). Backed by a strategic investor: Aeva Technologies, Innoviz Technologies, SiLC Technologies.