Theses›Automotive & mobility›SiC for EV traction

SiC for EV traction

SiC captures >70% of EV traction inverter shipments by 2030

  • Bear
  • Shut
  • $12B by 2035

The call800V goes mass-market and silicon carbide wins the inverter, but that is the consensus and the chipmakers own it; only a narrow non-Chinese upstream supplier is open.

D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1Everything high-voltage moves to 800V: sub-€25k 800V cars from Kia and Hyundai in 2026, datacentre power following, and 800V platforms about half of EVs by 2031.
  2. D2The substrate is the bottleneck: crystals grow slowly, 200mm wafers are defect-limited, Wolfspeed went through Chapter 11, and China heads for 40% of output by 2028.
  3. R1The incumbents are all-in and the device, substrate and inverter are locked by $100M-plus capex and multi-year automotive qualification.
  4. R2Upstream exits are modest: GTAT to onsemi for $415M, LPE to ASM for €425M, and a likely upstream winner exits at about $230M.
  5. R3Oversupply runs to 2027-28, which helps adoption and hurts any new entrant, above all one selling into a small slice.
  6. C1The USTR Section 301 tariff step-up on Chinese SiC substrates pushes non-Chinese buyers to re-source their wafers and source material.Jun 2027
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
20272028202920302031today1234567predictionswatch 20272028202920302031today1234567predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1SiC reaches device cost parity with Si IGBTs in the 1200V traction class by 2027.Dec 2027 · open
  2. 2SiC capacity expansion outpaces demand in 2026–2027, creating a temporary oversupply.Dec 2027 · open
  3. 3Wafer prices fall 20% in 2026 or 2027 on oversupply, and the Section 301 step-up in Jun 2027 changes who buys from whom.Dec 2027 · open
  4. 4SiC reaches cost parity with silicon IGBTs at 1200V.Dec 2027 · open
  5. 5China captures ≥40% of global SiC wafer + device manufacturing capacity by 2028.Dec 2028 · open
  6. 6SiC captures ≥70% of EV traction inverter device shipments globally by 2030.Dec 2030 · open
  7. 7China at 40% of global SiC capacity by 2028 and SiC at 70% of traction inverters by 2030.Dec 2030 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
Private · 5 private companies, 2 of them in China.

SICC Co. Ltd. · CISSOID · Bosch · SK Siltron CSS · BASiC Semiconductor

3 more private companies tracked, not shown

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$52M raised by 1 company, $116M of it in the last three years. Wave building: Money is arriving: recent rounds, but no runaway leader yet.

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