Theses›Semiconductor manufacturing›Hybrid bonding

Hybrid bonding

Hybrid bonding is the next high-density 3D interconnect, but the value is captured by the bonder duopoly + foundry, and the seed door is metrology/materials, not the bonder

  • Bear
  • Shut
  • $919M by 2035

The callHybrid bonding is a closed bonder oligopoly on TSMC's process, and Kinex has absorbed the metrology and prep slice a startup could have taken.

D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1Chips scale vertically, logic on logic and HBM stacks of 16 dies, and solder microbumps stop working below about 10 microns of pitch.
  2. D2Today's inspection can't see sub-micron overlay errors or voids inside a bonded stack until the stack has failed test.
  3. R1The bonder is a closed oligopoly with a 3-5 year qualification moat, and the process belongs to TSMC, Intel and Samsung.
  4. R2Kinex absorbed the one seed-sized slice, metrology and surface prep, about 80% of the way.
  5. R3The only standalone exit is Ziptronix's IP to Tessera for $39M; a bonder is a five-year $100M+ build, and memory volume waits for HBM5.
  6. C1First volume HBM insertion of copper hybrid bonding, Samsung's HBM4E or HBM5 class, roughly doubling bonder units and the metrology and prep with them.2029-30
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
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Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1SK hynix, Samsung or Micron announces mass production (not sampling) of an HBM product using copper hybrid bonding between 6 Nov 2026 and 31 Jan 2027.Jan 2027 · open
  2. 2A named foundry or packaging co-development agreement for an independent inspection company, which would show there is still room.Dec 2027 · open
  3. 3HBM4 stays on microbump / MR-MUF, NOT hybrid bonding; the first HBM generation to insert copper hybrid bonding in volume is HBM5 (~2029-2030).Dec 2028 · open
  4. 4Logic-on-logic hybrid bonding is in volume production before HBM hybrid bonding, i.e.Dec 2028 · open
  5. 5HBM4 staying on microbumps, and logic-on-logic reaching volume before HBM.Dec 2028 · open
  6. 6Samsung shipping HBM4 on volume hybrid bonding, which would bring the timing forward.Dec 2028 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
Private · 2 private companies, 2 of them in Netherlands.

Besi (BE Semiconductor Industries) · Invisix

2 more private companies tracked, not shown

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$22M raised by 1 company, $402M of it in the last three years. Wave building: Money is arriving: recent rounds and tier-1 funds are in, but no runaway leader yet.

Backed by a strategic investor: Invisix.

  • $22MInvisix
    • Founded 2025
     Seed, May 2026 $22M (Hitachi Ventures, Transition Ventures, imec.xpand)
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