Theses›Defence & security›Confidential computing

Confidential computing

By 2030, ≥85% of new SoCs from leading vendors (Apple, Arm-based, Intel, AMD, Nvidia, MediaTek, Qualcomm) ship with hardware TEE / confidential computing enclaves integrated.

  • Closing
  • $196B by 2035

The call, a draftSecure enclaves are becoming default silicon, with over 70% of new x86 server chips shipping them in 2024 and NVIDIA Blackwell on by default. Chipmakers and clouds give the feature away, so the window is late and the standalone market stays small.

D1D2D3D4R1R2R3C1C2C3foragainst D1D2D3D4R1R2R3C1C2C3foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the drivers.
  1. D1In 2024 more than 70% of new x86 server chips shipped with Intel TDX or AMD SEV-SNP enabled, and Apple has had a secure enclave in every iPhone since the 5S.
  2. D2NVIDIA Blackwell ships confidential compute on by default, removing the performance cost that kept regulated AI work off enclaves.
  3. D3Gartner expects more than 75% of operations on untrusted infrastructure to be secured in use by 2029.
  4. D4The EU AI Act and data-residency rules push banks and health systems toward attested, data-resident inference.
  5. R1Microsoft, AWS and Intel give attestation away, so the confidential VM premium is falling toward zero.
  6. R2TEE.fail forged NVIDIA GPU attestation with a sub-$1,000 memory interposer, and AMD declined to ship a fix, calling physical attacks out of scope.
  7. R3The largest independent confidential-computing software vendor had about $24.9M of recurring revenue in 2024.
  8. C1Two of AWS, Azure and Google Cloud make confidential VMs default-on for a general compute tier.31 Dec 2027
  9. C2A sovereign-cloud scheme requires hardware attestation verified independently of the chip and cloud vendor, or a vendor moves baseline attestation to a paid tier.31 Dec 2030
  10. C385% or more of new SoCs from leading vendors ship hardware enclaves.31 Dec 2030
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
20272028202920302031today12345678predictionswatch 20272028202920302031today12345678predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1By end-2027 at least two of AWS / Azure / GCP make confidential VMs the default (not opt-in) for a general compute tier — leads the >=85%-SoC-TEE-by-2030 thesis.Dec 2027 · open
  2. 2Two of the three hyperscalers making confidential VMs default for a general compute tier.Dec 2027 · open
  3. 3AWS / Azure / GCP enable confidential VM as default by 2028.Dec 2028 · open
  4. 4Confidential VMs as the default for new tenant deployments.Dec 2028 · open
  5. 5By 2030, ≥85% of new SoCs from leading vendors contain integrated TEE enclaves.Dec 2030 · open
  6. 6Confidential computing market revenue stays under $50B by 2030.Dec 2030 · open
  7. 7Enclave share of new leading-vendor SoCs against 85%.Dec 2030 · open
  8. 8Published confidential computing market size against $50B.Dec 2030 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
Private · 2 private companies.

Arm · Google Cloud

13 more private companies tracked, not shown

Technologies
What changedthe record, newest first
  • 23 Oct 2026Two hosting platforms lost their customers secrets from the inside this week. Confidential computing is built for exactly that case, and neither was using it.
  • 16 Jun 2026The hardware enclaves meant to keep AI model weights secret from the cloud operator were shown forgeable with a sub-$1,000 memory interposer, though only by someone with physical access to the machine.
  • 16 Jun 2026Securing AI compute is splitting in two: the chip-level confidentiality layer that is becoming a free silicon feature, and the messier security of AI agents reaching down into low-level infrastructure, which is where the open problems now sit.
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