Theses›Defence & security›Orbital defence

Orbital defence

Orbital defence: Golden Dome turns space into a munitions programme, and it is the demand engine under every space component page (watch)

  • Bear
  • Closing
  • $16B by 2035

The callGolden Dome turns orbit into a munitions programme that two or three primes plus SpaceX will win; there is no early-stage way in until production is competed below the vehicle.

D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1Space becomes a defence programme: up to $3.2B of interceptor prototype agreements, ~$400M for SBI in the FY27 request, a ~$185B architecture.
  2. D2The primes build a few satellites a decade at billions each, and cannot produce hundreds of vehicles a year at $10-30M each.
  3. R1No early-stage entry left: True Anomaly a $650M Series D past $1B raised, Apex $200M+ at $2.3B, Anduril at $60B+.
  4. R2OTA cohorts concentrate into 2-prime programmes once production starts, and the merchant subsystem slice a post-2020 company could win is about $100M.
  5. R3Congress has to fund it through a production decision after the June 2029 live intercepts, and Europe has no programme.
  6. C1The Golden Dome FY2027 request of $17.5B taking effect, funding interceptor flight tests ahead of a production decision after 2029.Oct 2026
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
202720282029203020312032today1234567predictionswatch 202720282029203020312032today1234567predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1The US Space Force, Space Development Agency or Missile Defense Agency announces space-based interceptor awards naming at least one company between 6 Nov 2026 and 31 Jan 2027.Jan 2027 · open
  2. 2Whether the prototype cohort has narrowed, and to whom, as the FY27 money is obligated.Jun 2027 · open
  3. 3Space-based interceptor production awards (post-prototype) go to no more than three companies, at least two of which are established primes or SpaceX.Dec 2029 · open
  4. 4The EU or NATO establishes an orbital-defence programme line above EUR2B before end-2029.Dec 2029 · open
  5. 5Production awards going to 3 or fewer companies with at least 2 primes or SpaceX, and any EU or NATO orbital defence line above €2B.Dec 2029 · open
  6. 6The Golden Dome space-based interceptor layer does not reach an operational constellation by end-2031.Dec 2031 · open
  7. 7Whether more than 50 interceptors are operational.Dec 2031 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
  • RHM.DERheinmetall
    • cheap
  • SAF.PASafran
    • full
  • LMTLockheed Martin
    • not screened
     Builds missile warning and tracking satellites (Next-Gen OPIR, SDA Tracking Layer) and holds a space-based interceptor prototype OTA from the US Space Force.
  • LHXL3Harris Technologies
    • not screened
     Builds missile warning and tracking satellites for the Space Development Agency's Tracking Layer.
  • NOCNorthrop Grumman
    • not screened
     Builds missile warning and tracking satellites (polar Next-Gen OPIR, SDA Tracking Layer) and holds a space-based interceptor prototype OTA.
  • RTXRTX (Raytheon)
    • not screened
     Holds a US Space Force space-based interceptor prototype OTA and supplies missile-defence sensors and interceptors to the DoD.
  • SPCXSpaceX
    • expensive
     Launches the proliferated defence constellations, builds Starshield satellites for the US government and holds a space-based interceptor prototype OTA.
  • RKLBRocket Lab
    • not screened
     Builds missile warning, tracking and defence satellites for the Space Development Agency's Tracking Layer.
Private · 9 private companies, 7 of them in the US; none in continental Europe.

True Anomaly · Apex Space · K2 Space · Turion Space · GITAI · Frontgrade Technologies · Ramon Space · Coherent Logix · Anduril Industries

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$10B raised by 6 companies, $9.7B of it in the last three years. Wave under way: Large rounds in the last three years; the category is funded and getting crowded.

Backed by a top-tier venture firm: Anduril Industries, True Anomaly, K2 Space, Apex Space. Backed by a strategic investor: GITAI.

What changedthe record, newest first
  • 27 Jul 2026The US is turning orbit into a munitions programme, and that single decision is the demand engine under most of the space supply chain.