Theses›Telecoms & wireless

Telecoms & wireless

Networks and the radios that join them.

  • 6 theses
  • 1 bull
  • 5 bear
Early513Open6Shut42 Early513Open6Shut42
Fig. 1Where the bets sit: windows from Early to Shut, left to right; each plot's area is the market's size by 2035. A double outline is a bull call, a single one a bear call, a dashed one a thesis with no call written yet. Washed: Industrial wireless IoT, the largest bull call.
The marketsnumbered as the plan
  1. 1Photonic RF signal generation
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $6.9B
    • Support 85
     [CANDIDATE THESIS, unvalidated] Photonic generation of RF/mmWave carriers displaces electronic frequency-multiplier synthesis as the preferred low-noise, widely-tunable source above ~40 GHz for satellite comms, 6G and high-end test.
  2. 2Satellite terminal silicon
    • Bear
    • Shut
    • $1.6B
    • Support 80
     Satellite user terminals: the volume node of the LEO buildout, with a sub-$100M exit record in the silicon layer (watch)
  3. 3Diamond RF power
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $1.2B
    • Support 80
     Diamond RF power transistors begin displacing GaN at the high-power, high-frequency, thermally-constrained edge of defence radar and satcom by 2030, where diamond's thermal conductivity and breakdown field break the GaN ceiling
  4. 4Direct-to-device satellite
    • Bear
    • Shut
    • $28B
    • Support 76
     Direct-to-device satellite: the fastest-growing space market, absorbed into the baseband before a merchant silicon layer forms (watch)
  5. 5RF front-end silicon
    • Bear
    • Early
    • $126B
    • Support 67
     RF front-end - the qualification moat, not the process, wins sovereign and defence demand
  6. 6Industrial wireless IoT
    • Bull
    • Open
    • $11B
    • Support 63
     Industrial wireless IoT connectivity silicon and modules; DECT NR+ and the 3.8-4.2 GHz decision are a catalyst inside it, not the market