Theses›Telecoms & wireless›Satellite terminal silicon

Satellite terminal silicon

Satellite user terminals: the volume node of the LEO buildout, with a sub-$100M exit record in the silicon layer (watch)

  • Bear
  • Shut
  • $1.6B by 2035

The callFlat-panel terminals will ship in the tens of millions, but the chip inside them doesn't pay a startup: Starlink makes its own and the best independent sold for $94M.

D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1Low-orbit broadband becomes the default connection off the fibre grid: Starlink alone shipped over 4.5M flat-panel terminals by early 2026.
  2. D2EU sovereignty and rearmament front-load European antenna demand into 2026-2030 through IRIS2 and GOVSATCOM terminal programmes.
  3. R1Starlink designs its own silicon, which removes the largest buyer from the merchant market and shrinks what a newcomer can sell into.
  4. R2The exit record is capped: Qorvo paid $93.7M for Anokiwave, SatixFy sold to MDA for about $280M, and the most likely outcome for an independent is a sub-$150M trade sale.
  5. R3Terminal makers increasingly design their own beamformers, so even the non-Starlink market closes to merchant chips.
  6. C1An IRIS2 or GOVSATCOM terminal grant turns into a production terminal award for a European entrant, opening sovereign terminal volume.end-2028
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
20272028202920302031today1234567predictionswatch 20272028202920302031today1234567predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1An IRIS2 user-terminal contract is awarded to a named supplier between 6 Nov 2026 and 31 Jan 2027.Jan 2027 · open
  2. 2IRIS2 terminal industrialisation grant winners named; whether any was founded after 2020.Mar 2027 · open
  3. 3Cumulative electronically steered flat-panel terminal shipments across all constellations exceed 15M units by end-2028.Dec 2028 · open
  4. 4Cumulative steered flat-panel shipments pass 15M, and IRIS2 production terminals come from incumbent primes through the first tranche.Dec 2028 · open
  5. 5IRIS2 user terminals are supplied by incumbent European primes and established terminal OEMs rather than by a new entrant, through the first production tranche.Dec 2029 · open
  6. 6No independent satcom beamforming-IC or ESA-terminal silicon company exits above $400M before end-2030.Dec 2030 · open
  7. 7No independent terminal chip company exits above $400M; an exit or private valuation above that would change the call.Dec 2030 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
Private · 8 private companies, 4 of them in the US.

Anokiwave · Movandi · Isotropic Systems (now ALL.SPACE) · Kymeta · Satixfy · Renesas · Viasat · TUSK IC

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$57M raised by 2 companies, $57M of it in the last three years. Wave building: Money is arriving: recent rounds and tier-1 funds are in, but no runaway leader yet.

Backed by a top-tier venture firm: TUSK IC. Backed by a strategic investor: Movandi.

  • $40MMovandi
    • Founded 2016
     Strategic round, Oct 2025 $40M (ITHCA Group, Phaistos Investment Fund, VT Alliance)
  • $17MTUSK IC
    • Founded 2018
     Series A, Sep 2026 $17M (Matterwave Ventures, FORWARD.one, Flanders Future Tech Fund (PMV))
What changedthe record, newest first
  • 27 Jul 2026The satellite dish on the roof is the highest-volume product in the space economy, and the best independent chip company serving it sold for under a hundred million dollars.