Theses›Telecoms & wireless›Industrial wireless IoT

Industrial wireless IoT

Industrial wireless IoT connectivity silicon and modules; DECT NR+ and the 3.8-4.2 GHz decision are a catalyst inside it, not the market

  • Bull
  • Open
  • $11B by 2035

The callThe Cyber Resilience Act makes every connected factory product re-qualify its radio by 2027; a DECT NR+ chip with security built in can take the deterministic slot.

D1D2D3R1R2R3C1foragainst D1D2D3R1R2R3C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the drivers.
  1. D1The Cyber Resilience Act forces every connected industrial product to re-qualify or replace its radio module and stack, with CE-marked security, an SBOM and an update path.
  2. D2Wi-Fi can't guarantee latency and private 5G is overkill on cost and power for a sensor, so no radio exists for deterministic, secure, low-power factory links.
  3. D3The 3.8-4.2 GHz band opens for local networks, and sovereignty demand favours a supply chain outside the US and China.
  4. R1Tier-1 OEM design-in slots lock on Nordic's now-shipping nRF9151 through the 2025-2028 cycle.
  5. R2Wi-Fi 7 time-sensitive networking matures as the secondary close, and the newer deterministic standards may stay a very small chip market.
  6. R3LMS's next tape-out has already slipped a quarter; silence on design-wins past Q3 2026 is the failure signal.
  7. C1The Cyber Resilience Act's main obligations apply: every connected industrial product on the EU market needs cybersecurity conformity, forcing OEMs to re-qualify the radio in every product line.11 Dec 2027
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
202720282029today123456predictionswatch 202720282029today123456predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1LMS design-wins disclosed; silence past this point is the failure signal.Sep 2026 · overdue
  2. 2LMS achieves design-win at ≥3 tier-1 European industrial OEMs by 2027-12-31.Dec 2027 · open
  3. 3LMS at three or more tier-1 European industrial OEM design-wins; CRA obligations in force from 11 December.Dec 2027 · open
  4. 4DECT NR+ ships in ≥50M devices/year by 2028.Dec 2028 · open
  5. 5Wi-Fi 7 fails to displace DECT NR+ in deterministic-latency industrial control by 2028.Dec 2028 · open
  6. 6DECT NR+ at 50M devices a year, and whether Wi-Fi 7 fails to displace it in deterministic control.Dec 2028 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
  • 2454.TWMediaTek
    • cheap
     Mobile + auto + edge AI SoC.
  • AVGOBroadcom
    • cheap
     Custom ASICs for Google/Meta + networking silicon.
  • NOD.OLNordic Semiconductor
    • cheap
  • 603236.SSQuectel Wireless Solutions
    • not screened
     Cellular IoT (LTE-M, NB-IoT, Cat-1, 5G RedCap) plus GNSS and Wi-Fi modules sold to industrial, metering and asset-tracking device makers.
  • SLABSilicon Labs
    • expensive
     Wireless SoCs and modules (Bluetooth, Zigbee/Thread, Wi-SUN, sub-GHz, Wi-Fi) sold to industrial, commercial-building and metering OEMs; being acquired by Texas Instruments.
  • SMTCSemtech
    • fair
     LoRa long-range radio chips and IP plus Sierra Wireless cellular modules sold to utility, industrial and asset-tracking customers.
  • QCOMQualcomm
    • not screened
     Cellular IoT modem chipsets (LTE-M/NB-IoT, Cat-1, RedCap) sold to module makers such as Quectel for industrial devices.
  • 300638.SZFibocom Wireless
    • not screened
     Cellular IoT and 5G modules sold to industrial, POS, metering and vehicle device makers.
Private · 7 private companies.

u-blox · Stratum 9 · Wirepas · Silvair · Morse Micro · Atmosic Technologies · Wiliot

8 more private companies tracked, not shown

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$573M raised by 4 companies, $98M of it in the last three years. Wave under way: Large rounds in the last three years; the category is funded and getting crowded.

Backed by a top-tier venture firm: Wiliot, Atmosic Technologies. Backed by a strategic investor: Wiliot.

  • $270MWiliot
    • Founded 2017
     Series C, Jul 2021 $200M (SoftBank Vision Fund 2, 83North, Amazon Web Services)
  • $191MMorse Micro
    • Founded 2016
     Series C, Sep 2025 $58M (MegaChips, National Reconstruction Fund Corporation, Blackbird)
  • $112MAtmosic Technologies
    • Founded 2016
     Series D, Mar 2025 $40M (Sutter Hill Ventures, Clear Ventures, Quantum Innovation Fund) · Growth, Jan 2022 $72M (Sutter Hill Ventures)
  • ·STRATUM 9 Rounds not itemised
What changedthe record, newest first
  • 6 Nov 2026Three years after its first chip, the new licence-free 5G radio standard has no order with a published unit count, while incumbents ship millions a year in each market it targets.
  • 21 Oct 2026The big metering numbers attached to the NR+ ecosystem belong to an older proprietary mesh, not the new standard; NR+ certification opens mid-2027 and one chip vendor still supplies the market.
  • 15 Oct 2026A licence-free industrial radio standard has its first products in the field, but no shipment data yet, a single silicon supplier, and a certification programme that now looks like mid-2027.
2 earlier
  • 23 Jun 2026The license-free deterministic industrial radio now has its first incumbent silicon in production, while the competing Wi-Fi deterministic mode is still stuck at testbed stage.
  • 5 Jun 2026A license-free industrial-IoT radio standard hit a multi-vendor interoperability milestone this spring, but the early production silicon is still the incumbent radio vendors, not the challenger.