Theses›Telecoms & wireless›Direct-to-device satellite

Direct-to-device satellite

Direct-to-device satellite: the fastest-growing space market, absorbed into the baseband before a merchant silicon layer forms (watch)

  • Bear
  • Shut
  • $28B by 2035

The callPhones become satellite phones, but the handset chip folds into Qualcomm and MediaTek modems and the payload goes to AST and Starlink; nothing left for a startup.

D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1The platforms are shipping: Starlink Direct to Cell has 650+ satellites live in 22 countries with over 3M T-Mobile subscribers, and AST has $400M of AT&T capacity prepayments.
  2. D2Towers do not cover most of the planet, and smartphone satellite service revenue heads to about $12B by 2030 on 411M monthly users.
  3. R1Qualcomm and MediaTek put satellite into standard modems on sub-$200 phones by 2027, turning a component sale into a line on someone else's die.
  4. R2Physics sets the satellite's aperture, power and cost, so the payload money stays with AST and Starlink and about $60M is winnable by a startup.
  5. R3Independent satellite chip companies sell small: Qorvo bought Anokiwave for $93.7M.
  6. C1Iridium's NTN Direct service and Nordic's nRF9151 module ship, turning satellite IoT into a standard module rather than a separate terminal.2026
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
20272028202920302031today123456predictionswatch 20272028202920302031today123456predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1Whether AST has more than 20 BlueBirds on orbit and commercial service with a tier-1 operator.Mar 2027 · open
  2. 2NTN is a standard feature in mainstream mobile basebands by end-2027.Dec 2027 · open
  3. 3A named OEM shipping a sub-$200 phone with satellite, then Qualcomm and MediaTek in cheap phones; a slip would reopen the handset side.Dec 2027 · open
  4. 4D2D subscriber count across all operators exceeds 25M by end-2028.Dec 2028 · open
  5. 5Whether direct-to-device subscribers pass 25M; a merchant silicon or module win the baseband cannot absorb would change the view.Dec 2028 · open
  6. 6No independent merchant supplier of D2D handset-side silicon reaches $50M annual revenue by end-2030.Dec 2030 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
  • 2454.TWMediaTek
    • cheap
     Mobile + auto + edge AI SoC.
  • ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc.
    • speculative
  • NOD.OLNordic Semiconductor
    • cheap
  • QRVOQorvo
    • fair
  • SWKSSkyworks Solutions
    • full
  • SPCXSpaceX (Starlink Direct to Cell)
    • expensive
     Satellite-to-phone texting, data and IoT capacity over 650+ direct-to-cell satellites, sold wholesale to mobile operators such as T-Mobile.
  • GSATGlobalstar
    • not screened
     Satellite capacity for Apple iPhone emergency SOS and messaging, plus its own satellite phones and IoT devices.
  • IRDMIridium Communications
    • not screened
     Satellite handset voice and data, IoT airtime, and the NTN Direct 3GPP NB-NTN service for standard chipsets, sold via service providers.
Private · 10 private companies, 7 of them in the US.

Lynk Global · Omnispace · SpaceX · Qualcomm · Satixfy · AST SpaceMobile · Lynk Global (now Elveo Mobile) · Skylo Technologies · Sateliot · OQ Technology

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$246M raised by 5 companies, $148M of it in the last three years. Wave building: Money is arriving: recent rounds, but no runaway leader yet.

Backed by a strategic investor: Skylo Technologies.

What changedthe record, newest first
  • 27 Jul 2026Satellite-to-phone is the fastest-growing thing in space and the component opportunity is being absorbed into standard basebands before anyone can build a business on it.