Theses›Quantum›Photonic quantum computing

Photonic quantum computing

Photonic quantum architectures capture ≥30% of useful-quantum-advantage workloads by 2030

  • Bear
  • Closing
  • $13B by 2035

The callFoundry-made photonic qubits scale like a datacentre, but the physics overhead is 1,000x worse than superconducting and the full stack is closed to newcomers.

D1D2R1R2C1foragainst D1D2R1R2C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1Fault tolerance needs millions of qubits, and photonic chips come off a standard 300mm line, so the machine can scale like a datacentre rather than a lab.
  2. D2Photons need no dilution fridge and network over ordinary fibre: Xanadu's Aurora ran 12 logical qubits across 35 chips and 13 km of fibre.
  3. R1Photonic needs about 1,000x more physical qubits per corrected qubit than superconducting, and is last on verified logical qubits.
  4. R2The full stack is closed: PsiQuantum and Xanadu raise at $1B a round, and Xanadu's SPAC has already slipped from $3.6B to $3.2B.
  5. C1PsiQuantum commissions its first utility-scale machine in Brisbane or Chicago, roughly tripling merchant demand for photon sources, nanowire detectors and chips.2028
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
Threatened by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
20272028202920302031today1234567predictionswatch 20272028202920302031today1234567predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1First commercially-meaningful useful-quantum-advantage demonstration by 2027.Dec 2027 · open
  2. 2A first commercially meaningful useful-advantage result on any architecture.Dec 2027 · open
  3. 3Superconducting quantum (IBM, Google) does NOT achieve fault-tolerant logical qubits at >100-logical-qubit scale by 2028.Dec 2028 · open
  4. 4Superconducting passes 100 logical qubits, which confirms the bear; a stall reopens photonic.Dec 2028 · open
  5. 5PsiQuantum's GlobalFoundries-fabbed photonic-qubit chip ships at >1M qubit-equivalent capacity by 2029.Dec 2029 · open
  6. 6PsiQuantum's GlobalFoundries chip reaches 1M qubit-equivalent capacity.Dec 2029 · open
  7. 7Photonic quantum architectures capture ≥30% of paying quantum-cloud workload share by 2030.Dec 2030 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
  • GFSGlobalFoundries
    • cheap
  • GOOGLGoogle
    • cheap
  • IBMIBM
    • full
     Superconducting qubits roadmap (Heron, Condor, Kingfisher).
  • IONQIonQ
    • speculative
     Trapped-ion qubits.
  • QBTSD-Wave Quantum
    • speculative
     Annealing quantum — different paradigm.
  • RGTIRigetti Computing
    • speculative
     Superconducting qubits — pure-play SPAC.
  • TSMTSMC
    • cheap
     Foundry monopoly at 3nm / 2nm.
  • 9432.TNTT
    • not screened
     Built a general-purpose continuous-variable optical quantum computer with RIKEN, offered to research partners via cloud, and is developing a 1M-qubit machine with OptQC.
Private · 4 private companies, 2 of them in the US; none in continental Europe.

PsiQuantum · Quantinuum · TuringQ · Photonic Inc.

10 more private companies tracked, not shown

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$1.8B raised by 3 companies, $1.6B of it in the last three years. Wave under way: Large rounds in the last three years; the category is funded and getting crowded.

Backed by a top-tier venture firm: PsiQuantum. Backed by a strategic investor: PsiQuantum, Photonic Inc..

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