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Counter-UAS effectors

Counter-UAS effectors: the drone-defence money is real and dated, but the integrated-effector socket is being handed to the primes before a startup can reach it

  • Bear
  • Closing
  • $10B by 2035

The callRight budget, wrong layer: Europe is buying counter-drone effectors by the thousand, but the primes hold the slot; the value open to others is the laser source inside their programmes.

D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst D1D2R1R2R3C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1A drone costing a few thousand dollars forces a missile costing hundreds of thousands, and swarms empty a magazine in minutes, so cost per shot has to fall to cents.
  2. D2European sovereignty and rearmament budgets are funding lasers and microwaves, the fastest-growing part of anti-drone spend.
  3. R1States award the integrated effector to prime consortia; the one dated European laser award went to MBDA and Rheinmetall, and Thales, Hensoldt and Leonardo hold the rest.
  4. R2The European slice a newcomer can reach is about $90M, an order of magnitude too small for a venture-scale outcome even at a generous share.
  5. R3A laser effector is a multi-year defence qualification at $10-100M before the first programme win.
  6. C1The Bundeswehr's mobile counter-drone procurement delivers, the first dated European effector buy a post-2020 laser company could win.2027
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
202720282029today123predictionswatch 202720282029today123predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1A European defence ministry or procurement agency awards a counter-UAS contract worth EUR 50M or more to a company founded after 2015 between 6 Nov 2026 and 31 Jan 2027.Jan 2027 · open
  2. 2The Bundeswehr mobile counter-drone buy: who wins the effector slot.Dec 2027 · open
  3. 3Any NATO-European award naming a post-2020 company as prime on a laser programme; I hold that at about 20%.Dec 2028 · open
  • ·No company founded after 2020 wins a national European counter-UAS high-energy-laser effector programme by 31 Dec 2028.
  • ·Tenders that buy the effector separately, and a European laser source or beam director winning a named slot inside a prime's programme.
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
  • RTXRTX (Raytheon)
    • not screened
     Sells high-energy laser weapons and Coyote interceptors that defeat drones to the US Army, Air Force and allied forces.
  • LMTLockheed Martin
    • not screened
     Builds naval, airborne and ground laser weapons and a high-power microwave system for the US military, and co-develops Iron Beam with Rafael.
  • RHM.DERheinmetall
    • cheap
     Sells gun-based air defence against drones and, with MBDA, is building Germany's naval high-energy laser weapon under a 2026 BAAINBw contract.
  • AVAVAeroVironment (incl. BlueHalo)
    • not screened
     Sells LOCUST laser weapons, Titan RF counter-drone systems and Freedom Eagle interceptors to US and allied forces.
  • EOS.AXElectro Optic Systems (EOS)
    • not screened
Private · 8 private companies, 4 of them in Germany.

Epirus · INLEAP Photonics · Ground A · Anduril Industries · Allen Control Systems · TYTAN Technologies · Frankenburg Technologies · Alpine Eagle

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$8.4B raised by 8 companies, $8.1B of it in the last three years. Wave under way: Large rounds in the last three years; the category is funded and getting crowded.

Backed by a top-tier venture firm: Anduril Industries, Epirus, TYTAN Technologies, Frankenburg Technologies, Alpine Eagle, Ground A.