Theses›Quantum›Quantum software

Quantum software

Modality-agnostic quantum software (the gate-synthesis, compiler and control layer plus near-term application algorithms) is a hardware-risk-free way to back quantum, investable wherever the IP abstracts above the qubit

  • Bear
  • Closing
  • $4.9B by 2035

The callCalibration and compilation become the cost of running quantum machines, but Q-CTRL and Classiq are funded and taking the deals, and vendors build the rest in-house.

D1D2R1R2C1foragainst D1D2R1R2C1foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1Calibration already takes 4-8 hours a day on 2-qubit-gate systems and the classical compute for 3, 4 and 5-qubit gates explodes as qubit counts rise.
  2. D2Each vendor's in-house stack is tied to one qubit type, so a compiler and calibration layer that works across modalities has a structural place.
  3. R1Q-CTRL ($113M Series B) and Classiq ($110M Series C) are funded and taking the contracts, including Q-CTRL's calibration work with QuantWare and a second chipmaker.
  4. R2Vendors absorb the rest in-house, IBM folded pulse control into its own instruction set in 2025, and the free toolchains set the price at zero.
  5. C1A leading qubit vendor names third-party calibration software as a production dependency, making the layer a paid line item.end-2027
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
Threatened by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
202720282029today1234predictionswatch 202720282029today1234predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1By end-2027 a leading qubit hardware vendor adopts third-party gate-design/calibration software as a named production dependency, or names calibration compute as a binding roadmap cost.Dec 2027 · open
  2. 2A leading vendor names third-party calibration as a production dependency.Dec 2027 · open
  3. 3Any new company turns a letter of intent into a paid production licence where a vendor's published fidelity depends on its software.Dec 2028 · open
  4. 4Measured on-hardware gains across two or more qubit types from one vendor's software.Dec 2028 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies
  • IBMIBM
    • full
     Superconducting qubits roadmap (Heron, Condor, Kingfisher).
  • IONQIonQ
    • speculative
     Trapped-ion qubits.
  • QBTSD-Wave Quantum
    • speculative
     Annealing quantum — different paradigm.
  • RGTIRigetti Computing
    • speculative
     Superconducting qubits — pure-play SPAC.
  • QNTQuantinuum
    • not screened
     Sells quantum software (TKET compiler, InQuanto chemistry library, Nexus platform) alongside access to its trapped-ion computers, to enterprises and labs; a 2021 Honeywell-CQC merger, listed on Nasdaq Jun 2026.
  • AMZNAmazon Web Services (Amazon Braket)
    • fair
     Sells pay-per-use cloud access to third-party quantum processors and simulators, plus an SDK, to developers and researchers; part of Amazon.
  • MSFTMicrosoft (Azure Quantum)
    • full
     Sells Azure Quantum cloud services and a quantum-readiness programme to enterprises, alongside its own topological qubit research.
  • GOOGLGoogle Quantum AI (Alphabet)
    • cheap
     Publishes the open-source Cirq framework and qsim simulator for programming quantum computers; no paid software line is disclosed.
Private · 5 private companies.

Phasecraft · Q-CTRL · Classiq · Horizon Quantum Computing · ParityQC

5 more private companies tracked, not shown

Technologies
Who has already bet on itprivate rounds, from public sources

$475M raised by 5 companies, $401M of it in the last three years. Wave under way: Large rounds in the last three years; the category is funded and getting crowded.

Backed by a top-tier venture firm: Horizon Quantum Computing, Phasecraft. Backed by a strategic investor: Classiq, Q-CTRL, Horizon Quantum Computing.

What changedthe record, newest first
  • 14 Aug 2026The team that built a public quantum-computing company's compiler stack has left to start a modality-agnostic quantum-software company. That is worth noticing on both sides: it qualifies the argument that hardware vendors simply absorb this layer in-house, because the in-house capability turns out to be portable, while also adding another well-credentialled entrant to a layer that already has scaled, funded incumbents. Letters of intent are still the traction on offer across this whole cohort, and a letter of intent is precisely what does not demonstrate lock-in.
  • 22 Jun 2026The modality-agnostic quantum-software layer is real but small today (low tens of $M for the gate/control product slice) and the often-quoted 15-20%-of-quantum-revenue figure looks 2-4x too high versus both today (~2-10%) and the EDA analogue (~2.5%); the bull needs the calibration-cost wall to force a share shift, not the headline.
  • 18 Jun 2026The modality-agnostic quantum gate/compiler-software layer claims ~15-20% of eventual QC revenue; the open question is whether that IP locks to vendors or commoditises — early demand is real (multiple-modality LOIs) but everything is still pre-hardware.