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Cyber insurance repricing

Cheap attacks reach the economy through insurance first: loss ratios rise while prices still fall, so the market turns hard and the tail goes uninsured

  • Bear
  • Shut
  • $35B by 2035

The callCyber insurers are still cutting prices while their losses rise, so the market turns hard, likely in 2027. That favours the big disciplined underwriters and reinsurers, and leaves small firms uninsured; there is no startup window here.

D1D2D3R1R2R3C1C2foragainst D1D2D3R1R2R3C1C2foragainst
Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1The US cyber loss ratio rose from 48.7 to 53 in 2025 and claims rose 20%, by the NAIC's count, while prices kept falling.
  2. D2Cheap AI-driven attacks raise the number and size of claims, and third-party claims are already pushing the loss ratio up, according to AM Best.
  3. D3Zurich's purchase of Beazley concentrates the top of the market, which makes disciplined pricing easier to hold once it starts.
  4. R1AM Best counts eight consecutive quarters of US price cuts through Q1 2026, so the turn has not started.
  5. R2The forecasts conflict: S&P expects 15-20% rises in 2026 while the NAIC shows US premium broadly flat, so the timing is a bet against a running soft market.
  6. R3Insurers can reach for exclusions of AI-driven or systemic events before price, which moves the loss back to the insured instead of repricing it.
  7. C1US cyber insurance rates rise for two consecutive quarters on AM Best, Marsh or Howden data.31 Dec 2027
  8. C2The NAIC report covering 2026 shows the US cyber loss ratio above 55.30 Sep 2027
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
Supported by · confidence
What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
20272028today12345predictionswatch 20272028today12345predictionswatch
Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1The NAIC report covering 2026 shows the US cyber loss ratio above 55.Sep 2027 · open
  2. 2The NAIC loss ratio for 2026, against a bar of 55.Sep 2027 · open
  3. 3US cyber insurance rates rise for at least two consecutive quarters before 31 Dec 2027.Dec 2027 · open
  4. 4Two consecutive quarters of US cyber rate rises.Dec 2027 · open
  5. 5Whether insurers write AI-driven or systemic-event exclusions before they raise rates.Dec 2027 · open
What changedthe record, newest first
  • 23 Oct 2026Cyber insurers are still cutting prices while their losses go up. That gap closes one way, and it ends with the smallest firms uninsured.