Theses›Datacentre & AI compute›AI thermal substrates >1000 W/mK

AI thermal substrates >1000 W/mK

AI compute is increasingly interconnect/thermal-bound, not purely transistor-bound.

  • Not dated

The call, a draftSubstrates above 1000 W/mK beat copper's roughly 400 W/mK, but none has passed the thermal-cycle tests production needs, so copper still holds. The window is early, and the money so far has gone to whole diamond-cooled servers.

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Fig. 1The balance. Drivers and catalysts against restraints, each block sized by its weight; catalysts hang dashed because they have not happened yet, sized by their odds. It tips toward the restraints.
  1. D1AI accelerator power climbs 50-100W per generation, and datacentre efficiency runs into thermal limits before silicon ones.
  2. D2Copper conducts about 400 W/mK, while graphene thick films exceed 3000 W/mK in sheets of 1m x 0.5m.
  3. D3Diamond-cooled servers have sold as complete systems, H200 servers in India and a reported $300M launch order on AMD MI350X with MiTAC.
  4. R1Steady-state gains of about 10°C have not been shown over 1000-plus thermal cycles, and expansion mismatch with the package is untested under load.
  5. R2Retrofit sales are closed by warranty and access, and component vendors have no fleet data such as tokens per second or FLOPs per watt.
  6. C1A >1000 W/mK substrate reaches Tier-1 OEM production qualification (Bosch, NVIDIA, Schneider or similar) for AI accelerators or power electronics.31 Dec 2028
  7. C21000-plus thermal-cycle data under load is published for a graphene, ceramic or diamond substrate.30 Apr 2028
Rests onthe beliefs underneath
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What would prove itdated tests, open and resolved
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Fig. 2Each ring is a dated test: dashed while open, struck through when overdue, ticked or crossed once resolved.
  1. 1A diamond, graphene-film or other >1000 W/mK substrate vendor announces a named hyperscaler or Tier-1 OEM production (not evaluation) customer for AI hardware between 6 Nov 2026 and 31 Jan 2027.Jan 2027 · open
  2. 2First Tier-1 OEM qualification timelines for >1000 W/mK substrates.Dec 2027 · open
  3. 3At least one >1000 W/mK passive substrate platform reaches Tier-1 OEM production qualification for AI accelerator or power-electronics by 2028-12-31.Dec 2028 · open
  4. 4A Tier-1 production qualification naming a substrate and vendor.Dec 2028 · open
Expressionslisted, private, technologies

3 more private companies tracked, not shown

Technologies