Trends›Value flees from cognition to atoms

Value flees from cognition to atoms

As thinking approaches free, value flees from cognition to atoms — the scarce physical complements re-price up.

82 ↓1 confidence, computed 23 Oct 2026

Fig. 1The evidence leans for, about 8 to one by weight, and the newest evidence points the same way.

Rests onfacts underneath

What rests on thismarkets it underwrites or threatens

Underwrites

Evidencethe schedule the figure draws

The evidence, newest first

Jul 2026
for · primary Private source
Jun 2026
for · primary AI is driving big productivity gains for companies; companies making biggest gains are raising wages and headcount faster than companies least exposed to AI, with 40% higher productivity growth. 2026 Global AI Jobs Barometer
Jun 2026
for · observable Private source
Jun 2026
for · observable Private source
Jun 2026
for · observable AI capital operates in complementarity regime, raising marginal products of both physical capital and labor in general equilibrium, increasing rental rates and real wages. Automation and Aging in General Equilibrium: AI Capital, Fertility, and the Return to Capital
May 2026
for · observable Private source
May 2026
against · observable Private source
Apr 2026
for · primary Industries with higher AI exposure 2017-2024 experienced 10% productivity increase, 3.9% job growth, and 4.8% wage growth per standard deviation of AI exposure. Industries most exposed to AI are not only seeing productivity gains but jobs and wage growth too

What would move itthe measures watched

watchInference $/token and $/task vs grid $/MWh.
watchCapex mix — compute silicon vs power/land/cooling/packaging. Share shifting toward the physical complements = value migrating to atoms
watchWage premium on irreproducible in-person work (care, trades, live experience). Rising real premium vs knowledge-work wages = Baumol-on-steroids showing up